its quite possible that a faulty capacitor or IC is drifting over time inside the alarm control box causing it to go off, or your handbrake might not be fully working, allowing the car to move a little setting off the alarm, the other thing could be as old shape says, the battery, the only way to check that really is with a multimeter. do you leave your mobile in the car? maybe its ringing triggering the alarm?
on my old e36 the battery cells leaked inside the battery backed up siren and caused it to go off intermittantly, i had to wash the circuit board and dry it off with compressed air and replace the batterys and a capacitor to fix it.
Good luck and let us know how you get on.