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spokey View Drop Down
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Points: 1948 		Direct Link To This Post Topic: A risk analysis of speeding
    Posted: 21-January-2006 at 08:54

I found this (American) website quite interesting. Some interesting aspects of the analysis:

Quote 4) Any attempts to obey the speed limit when the flow is substantially faster are suicidal, according to this model. Doing 55 when everybody else is doing 70 can increase your risk by more than a factor of 100! [American speed limits, presumably a similar argument applies to driving 70 when everyone else is driving 85.]

5) It also appears that "traffic kills" rather than "speed kills": traffic density d is the single most important factor that affects the total risk. Doubling the traffic density approximately doubles the risk and makes it twice as dangerous to deviate from the flow.
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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 09:17
Everybody should be driving at a similar speed yes. But not more than the speed limit. That is what the enforcement is about, speed cameras are a measure to try & do that. Variable limits are a measure to try & do that as well (everyone travelling together at a speed so you don't keep getting the stop & start, high speed then low speed. Instead it's one moderated constant flow.)
If people simply brake for the camera & try to cheat that purpose, then expect more SPECS type systems to follow. You can't cheat them by doing that because they will enforce compliance over a far greater area.

On the second point
But we continually buck that trend with our methods & advancements.
In our worst year recorded we had 9,169 deaths from only 2.5 million vehicles on our roads.
In our best (last year) we had our lowest number of deaths 3,221 with 58.1 million registered vehicles (our highest number ever.)




Edited by livvy
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Points: 1948 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 09:32
Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Everybody should be driving at a similar speed yes. But not more than the speed limit.


But that directly contradicts what he's saying: he's saying if everyone else is speeding, then it's safer for you to travel at the same speed as everyone else.
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Points: 152 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 09:43

The easy answer to this one is raise the speed limits...

Now I am not talking across the the full road network but motorways for example should have the speed limit increased. Modern cars are more than capable of travelling safely at speed greater than 70mph. A 90mph limit on the motorway would be much more acceptable in this day and age.

On the flip side im all for the reduction of speed limits in areas such as built up housing estates, school areas, towns etc.!

As a final safety note, driving tests should be made harder/stricter with more emphasis on road safety, driving conditions and vehicle control.

P.S. Elderly people, 60+ should be required to re take a driving test and repeat every 3-5 following years! (ready for the flaming )

 
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Points: 10053 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 09:56
Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:


In our worst year recorded we had 9,169 deaths from only 2.5 million vehicles on our roads.In our best (last year) we had our lowest number of deaths 3,221 with 58.1 million registered vehicles (our highest number ever.)


does this include congestion - the shear volume of traffic can have an effect as well. You're less likely to have a fatal accident if you're stood still. Though I expect the number of minor accidents has risen due to impatiant people lane swapping and cutting-up in these situations.
Also does this take into account traffic calming measures such as speed bumps and chicanes etc.

Edited by Rhys
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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 09:56
Originally posted by spokey spokey wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Everybody should be driving at a similar speed yes. But not more than the speed limit.


But that directly contradicts what he's saying: he's saying if everyone else is speeding, then it's safer for you to travel at the same speed as everyone else.


You can get everyone travelling at the same speed by increasing the slower drivers to the speed of the faster (which may be beyond their capabilities) OR reducing the speed of the faster drivers to that which everyone is capable of travelling at safely.

It's the same result & I prefer the second because everyone is driving within their capabilities that we have all been tested to.
My views expressed are just that.
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Points: 1948 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 09:58
Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Originally posted by spokey spokey wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Everybody should be driving at a similar speed yes. But not more than the speed limit.


But that directly contradicts what he's saying: he's saying if everyone else is speeding, then it's safer for you to travel at the same speed as everyone else.


You can get everyone travelling at the same speed by increasing the slower drivers to the speed of the faster (which may be beyond their capabilities) OR reducing the speed of the faster drivers to that which everyone is capable of travelling at safely.

It's the same result & I prefer the second because everyone is driving within their capabilities that we have all been tested to.


Livvy, is this all about safety or not?

If it's about safety, then his numbers quite clearly show that even if you are breaking the speed limit, you are driving more safely if you go with the flow.

So, is this about safety or not?
Ciao,
Spokey

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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:02
Originally posted by Rhys Rhys wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:


In our worst year recorded we had 9,169 deaths from only 2.5 million vehicles on our roads.In our best (last year) we had our lowest number of deaths 3,221 with 58.1 million registered vehicles (our highest number ever.)


does this include congestion - the shear volume of traffic can have an effect as well. You're less likely to have a fatal accident if you're stood still. Though I expect the number of minor accidents has risen due to impatiant people lane swapping and cutting-up in these situations.
Also does this take into account traffic calming measures such as speed bumps and chicanes etc.


Total number of collisions haven't changed greatly despite the vast increase in vehicle numbers, they did rise to a peak in the 60's but have steadily dropped slightly since to where our current levels are at about the 1940's number of accidents again.
My views expressed are just that.
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Points: 6484 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:02

Originally posted by spokey spokey wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Originally posted by spokey spokey wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Everybody should be driving at a similar speed yes. But not more than the speed limit.


But that directly contradicts what he's saying: he's saying if everyone else is speeding, then it's safer for you to travel at the same speed as everyone else.


You can get everyone travelling at the same speed by increasing the slower drivers to the speed of the faster (which may be beyond their capabilities) OR reducing the speed of the faster drivers to that which everyone is capable of travelling at safely.

It's the same result & I prefer the second because everyone is driving within their capabilities that we have all been tested to.


Livvy, is this all about safety or not?

If it's about safety, then his numbers quite clearly show that even if you are breaking the speed limit, you are driving more safely if you go with the flow.

So, is this about safety or not?

No of course it isn't. It 's about having power over someone and exercising that power.
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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:04
Originally posted by spokey spokey wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Originally posted by spokey spokey wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Everybody should be driving at a similar speed yes. But not more than the speed limit.


But that directly contradicts what he's saying: he's saying if everyone else is speeding, then it's safer for you to travel at the same speed as everyone else.


You can get everyone travelling at the same speed by increasing the slower drivers to the speed of the faster (which may be beyond their capabilities) OR reducing the speed of the faster drivers to that which everyone is capable of travelling at safely.

It's the same result & I prefer the second because everyone is driving within their capabilities that we have all been tested to.


Livvy, is this all about safety or not?

If it's about safety, then his numbers quite clearly show that even if you are breaking the speed limit, you are driving more safely if you go with the flow.

So, is this about safety or not?


I agree that it is safest if everyone is travelling at similar speeds.

But that should not be at speeds above our limits. That is safest.
My views expressed are just that.
Mine & mine alone.
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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:05
Originally posted by Peter Fenwick Peter Fenwick wrote:

No of course it isn't. It 's about having power over someone and exercising that power.


WE have safety controls over many aspects of our lives & speed limits are just one of them. Those are societies rules. It's the job of the Police to uphold societies rules.


Edited by livvy
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Points: 1948 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:06
Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:



I agree that it is safest if everyone is travelling at similar speeds.

But that should not be at speeds above our limits. That is safest.


But livvy, I can't make everyone else drive at a given speed. If I get on the motorway, and everyone else is doing 80 or 85, and I drive at the speed limit, then I am driving less safely, more dangerously, than if I were to drive at the speed limit.

So, what do I do, drive less safely at the speed limit, or drive more safely at a faster speed?
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Points: 6941 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:20

Hard call spokey, and only one you can make, if it makes you feel any better, I will tend to drive with the flow....but I'm still breaking the law.

Now, how about if we get everyone trained, then we may be able to increase the limits ?

Livvy often bashes me with the point, that in my quest for higher limits I am increasing the differential between different groups of road users, and thus increasing danger.

Its all a balancing act !
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Points: 10053 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:23
Originally posted by Nigel Nigel wrote:

Hard call spokey, and only one you can make, if it makes you feel any better, I will tend to drive with the flow....but I'm still breaking the law.


Now, how about if we get everyone trained, then we may be able to increase the limits ?


Livvy often bashes me with the point, that in my quest for higher limits I am increasing the differential between different groups of road users, and thus increasing danger.


Its all a balancing act !



Quite true, given that HGV's are restricted to 60 mph, and can occcupy 2 lanes of a 3 lane motorway - what happens when one pulls out infront of a car going faster than say 80 mph - especialy if there is another one following (lots of braking)
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Points: 10000473 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 10:29

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

 Variable limits are a measure to try & do that as well (everyone travelling together at a speed so you don't keep getting the stop & start, high speed then low speed. Instead it's one moderated constant flow.)

Cobblers!

Went to the NEC last Friday - on the M42 at 08:30, variable speed limit in use, 60...50...40...40...40... and I was almost stationary by then, doing 10-20mph, looking at the signs says "Wish I could do 40!"

Came back in the afternoon (3pm ish) and now my way home was showing 60...50... with an almost empty road!

So with the few of us on the road at that time all bunched up together, annoyed, as we can't ignore the limit as 90% of the signs have camera's on them!



Edited by thepits
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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 11:08
Spokey

You can't hope that everyone who is travelling faster than you will all be travelling at the same speed either. Without a limit that means that everyone would be having to travel at the same speed as the very fastest, which is a complete nonsense as you would be asking the least skilled to be doing the speed that the most skilled think appropriate. It will be beyond them to safely do that.

The safest way is to set a common safe limit & rigidly enforce that.
Bring it down to the lowest common denominator.

It's either that or make all drivers as capable as the best. That is the only way you can up the limit is raise the overall standard.


Edited by livvy
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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 11:12
Originally posted by thepits thepits wrote:

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

 Variable limits are a measure to try & do that as well (everyone travelling together at a speed so you don't keep getting the stop & start, high speed then low speed. Instead it's one moderated constant flow.)

Cobblers!

Went to the NEC last Friday - on the M42 at 08:30, variable speed limit in use, 60...50...40...40...40... and I was almost stationary by then, doing 10-20mph, looking at the signs says "Wish I could do 40!"

Came back in the afternoon (3pm ish) and now my way home was showing 60...50... with an almost empty road!

So with the few of us on the road at that time all bunched up together, annoyed, as we can't ignore the limit as 90% of the signs have camera's on them!



Of course it relies on constant monitoring & the operators remembering to change the limits. Just because it says a limit don't suppose you can safely do that speed though, it is after all the maximum in good circumstances not what is definitely safe & achieveable.

The idea of variable limits is noble & my personal experience of travelling on roads with them has been quite positive.
My views expressed are just that.
Mine & mine alone.
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Points: 1948 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 11:16
Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

You can't hope that everyone who is travelling faster than you will all be travelling at the same speed either. Without a limit that means that everyone would be having to tarvel at the same speed as the very fastest, which is a complete nonsense as you would be asking the least skilled to be doing the speed that the most skilled think appropriate. It will be beyond them to safely do that.

The safest way is to set a common safe limit & rigidly enforce that.
Bring it down to the lowest common denominator.


Livvy, you are NOT answering my question. Avoid the sophistry and hair-splitting, please!

If I get on the motorway and the flow of traffic is travelling faster than the speed limit, should I travel more safely and break the speed limit, or should I travel less safely at or below the speed limit?
Ciao,
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Points: 745 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 11:17
Keep to the limit, because you can't hope to match the speed of every other vehicle out there. Let them come to your speed (as they should).
If you are the slowest just stay in lane one.

Edited by livvy
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Points: 10000473 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-January-2006 at 11:19

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:


Of course it relies on constant monitoring & the operators remembering to change the limits.
Inefficient humans interfering in your computor world!

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

Just because it says a limit don't suppose you can safely do that speed though, it is after all the maximum in good circumstances not what is definitely safe & achieveable. 
Good answer, but completely missing my point!!

Originally posted by livvy livvy wrote:

The idea of variable limits is noble & my personal experience of travelling on roads with them has been quite positive.

                  

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